have heard from in all the trio we have heard from in all the big occasions during this pandemic reappearing publicly together in this news conference. occasions during this pandemic appearing publicly together in this news conference. we are expecting an england wide lockdown to be announced starting on thursday, running until the 2nd of december with nonessential shops being closed, not including supermarkets. supermarkets will remain open. the hospitality sector closing down with the exception of takeaways, so pubs, cafes a nd restau ra nts the exception of takeaways, so pubs, cafes and restaurants closing. people being able to meet one person outside from beyond their household, so an outside from beyond their household, so an important detail there, particularly for those who live alone and, crucially, the distinction you reported there, that is different to what happened in the uk in the spring, schools, colleges and universities will stay open. what we have seen today and one of the explanations behind this delay in the news conferences the government being caught something on the hop by reports late last night and in the newspapers this morning and in the newspapers this morning and on the bbc that this is what the

government was considering privately. but we know from a message that was sent by the prime minister to conservative mps this evening that this isn't the choreography that he had hoped for. he had hoped to be able to give a statement to the house of commons on monday setting out what we expect to hear from monday setting out what we expect to hearfrom him in the next 15 minutes orso, hearfrom him in the next 15 minutes or so, but, given hearfrom him in the next 15 minutes orso, but, given thejournalism that was done by the newspapers and others, managing to find out what was happening privately within government, they have had to bring that forward because, otherwise, there would have been a weekend of speculation without us hearing from the prime minister. hence a rapidly assembled cabinet meeting that happened at around 1:30pm this afternoon. i understand that it involves scientists as well, briefing cabinet ministers. in addition to that, opposition party leaders were then briefed as well because there will be a vote in the commons in the coming days and obviously there has been the process of assembling this news conference and the series of delays that have seen it being pushed back once or

twice. normally we wouldn't, i guess, talk in great detail about the process around which these events the process around which these eve nts ta ke the process around which these events take place but, given that, if you have been watching us for the last couple of hours, you will have seen, it is kind of important to offer some sort of explanation as to why that is happening. clearly, in the government's defence, they are handling something entirely unprecedented in its scale and its scope and that is, i guess, part of the reason for the delays. politically, as we were hearing from laura kuenssberg, labour have been making the argument for several weeks that this kind of thing should happen, some sort of lockdown, the prime minister injust happen, some sort of lockdown, the prime minister in just the last few days was arguing the opposite that the regional approach was the best strategy. clearly, there was a relu cta nce strategy. clearly, there was a reluctance from the government to press this most extreme of buttons but, confronted by the data, they have been left with no other option. so we do hope to hear from the have been left with no other option. so we do hope to hearfrom the prime minister in the next few minutes but, surely, one of the questions he

is going to be asked is really what has changed 7 is going to be asked is really what has changed? because the warnings from his own scientific advisory group have been going on since late september. yes, so this age group of scientists, they advise the government, they warned back on september the 21st, that, in their view, given the modelling they were doing at the data they had, that a circuit breaker lockdown, as they described it, was wise. potentially around the half term holiday period, which isjust coming around the half term holiday period, which is just coming to an end around the half term holiday period, which isjust coming to an end in most parts of england, because you will be able to shut everything down and also close calls without having and also close calls without having an impact on education, because schools have been closed anyway. government have been reluctant to do that and they have a very difficult balancing act, trying to maintain people's livelihoods, businesses, the economy and our liberties, which have been hugely constrained in the last six months, as well as trying to repress the virus, and the argument was what are you going to achieve in terms of reducing coronavirus cases in manchester, for

instance, by locking down in cornwall. however, in the last couple of days, a couple of key bits of data emerging and being shown to the prime minister and senior cabinet ministers and the prime minister —— and one was a range of projections, all of which pointed to afar projections, all of which pointed to a far more imminent peak of the virus and a far higher peak than even the reasonable worst—case scenario that had been the basis for the government arriving at its decisions up until now. and, then, in addition to that, modelling that had been done by nhs england suggesting that the capacity in hospitals around england could very quickly be exceeded, even in those areas where the current caseload might be rising but is still relatively low. confronted by those two sets of data, the prime minister was clearly, in his view, left with no option but to act. chris, once again, many thanks. chris mason, our political correspondent.

now, earlier, we werejoined by the chair of global public health at the university of edinburgh, devi sridhar and she said a national lockdown in england is inevitable. in the position england is in, it seems inevitable they have to slow it down, and, unfortunately, nobody wants a lockdown but it seems like there's no other choice right now, because uncontrolled spread be even worse. is this action that you think the government should have taken earlier? yes, well, i actually go back to the summer and i say we had a lockdown, we've been under some kind of restrictions since march, we got numbers pretty low injune. what did we do wrong injune which means we are not in a better position now? and, for me, there are three things that east asian countries have done. many of them never even locked down, which was, first, strict border restrictions. you don't keep re—importing chains of infection. second, voluntary good guidance to the public on avoiding the virus at all ages, you don't want to get this even if you are young and, third, a test, trace, isolate system which works well for flare ups and at low numbers.

butjust relying, you know, on a lockdown, is probably the harshest and crudest way to deal with a virus like this. i don't think it's sustainable for the next few months to be in a lockdown and release cycle, it would be a pretty rubbish path to go down. but, then, what is the alternative, which countries have managed this better? because we look across the channel to france, look at italy and spain, they are all having a very rough time of it, too. yes, so the countries that are doing the best at this are in east asia, taiwan, south korea, thailand, vietnam, hong kong, singapore and, interestingly, new zealand and australia, which first looked to the european model, decided they didn't want to follow the flu pandemic model and pivoted to the east asian sars model, which is eliminating the virus and this is feasible. we saw in the summer that, with the right restrictions, you can get numbers low and, then, as cases come in, catch them at airports, deal with flare—ups at a localised level. but, as long as we try and live alongside this virus, we will have restrictions on our daily life, because it is so infectious that it

takes off growth very quickly and, secondly, because of rising hospitalisations, health services are forced to react and forced to actually slow things down. the choice is not between covid and non—covid harm, the choice is between do you want a lot of covid and non—covid harm or do you want minimal covid harm and minimal non—covid harm? that is the real choices for countries right now, given what we've seen over the past year. so how do you see england, within the uk, for example? because england is, in a sense, the last to impose a strict set of rules. scotland, of course, is not in national lockdown but it does have this five—tier system. so england currently you can see as the outlier in the uk. you see that. wales has the firebreak, we talked about northern ireland and scotland, and the idea was to move early, to move sharp, to use the half term break when schools were off to get numbers low and then the question is, once they are low, how do you keep them there while you try and get back some normality and get the economy going? and that is where their border restrictions become important. and this is something, coming back to european countries,

that european countries have been [oath to do. they have not wanted to stop the movement in and out of their borders and it's also why islands have done so well. you know, to be an island in 2020 has been a gift, because you can actually then control and prevent and catch infections at ports of entry, at airports. if you have a [and border like germany, i know they've considered this, you have [and borders with nine countries, how exactly do you stop traffic across those, especially when you are part of the eu? it has to be a joined up strategy. so i think the integration of europe and the movement had actually created a lot of cross contamination and no realjoint of strategy, and no realjoined up strategy, so that we all kind of deal with this in a similar approach and on a similar timeline. professor devi sridhar, who i spoke to earlier. professor sue neto gupta is an infectious disease epidemiologist from the university of oxford and joins us now. good evening, we are heading for a month long national lockdown in england, how do you view that? well, i think

it is most unfortunate. i think that this is not a long—term solution to this is not a long—term solution to this problem as neil ferguson said. you know, all this does is delay the inevitable growth in infections. so i don't see this as a long—term strategy. and i think it's going to cause enormous harm , strategy. and i think it's going to cause enormous harm, particularly to those who are disadvantaged and i hope schools don't close, i hope universities stay open and... but, if they don't, then we will be also causing a lot of harm to those we should be most obliged to protect, the older generation. what is the alternative, given the data that we have seen, fears that the nhs might be overwhelmed? i wish we hadn't got to that position at all. i think if we had protected the vulnerable, right at the outset, as soon as we saw cases or infections rising, then

we should have been able to prevent a situation whereby the nhs was being overwhelmed. if we had, this summer, invested more in creating capacity within the nhs for the number of infections, cases, clinical cases that are perhaps inevitable, then we would have been ina inevitable, then we would have been in a different position and i think thatis in a different position and i think that is what we should continue to focus on, the protection of the vulnerable. as it is, we are going into a lockdown which is going to put in place some of those very measures that are necessary to protect the vulnerable, against which many people have been arguing, and, at the same time, we are now going to penalised the rest of the population in a very, very tough way. it is difficult because the point was made earlier that there has been increased capacity in the nhs. the huge nightingale hospitals that have been built. the problem is staffing rather than just capacity. well, i

think surely there must be some ways of dealing with this. if we hadn't underfunded the nhs for the last 30 yea rs we underfunded the nhs for the last 30 years we would not be in this position. i'm certain in other countries, as many have pointed out, they have done better because they have better funded national they have done better because they have betterfunded national health systems and because they have better funded and more thoughtfully structured care home systems, so it is because of a lack of these social systems and lack of funding, especially at the level of the local councils, that we are in this mess now. and i think the way out of it is still to focus on protecting those who are vulnerable in those areas and let population level immunity build up so that we attain an endemic equilibrium level as we enjoy it right now with the other

seasonal coronaviruses that are circulating. sorry to but in, but when you talk about protecting the vulnerable, are you talking about a return to shielding? yes, i should think so, for a short period of time. so between now and christmas, since christmas seems to be the goal, that we should enter into a system where we have shielding. if we see the cases continuing to rise. meantime, we are in any case through lockdown it will be the same, the situation that grandparents will not get to see their grandchildren. what we wa nt get to see their grandchildren. what we want to do is approach that equilibrium, endemic equilibrium, as swiftly as possible with the least harm done by way of virus deaths. so we can go back to normal. and we have to come at all times, remember that the costs of lockdown are

profound. this is not about false binaries. it is not a false binary when you are sitting in a small flat and facing a job loss and thinking about how you will feed your children. that is not a false binary. 0k. very good to talk to you. thank you so much. the prime minister is due to announce new lockdown measures in england, with the new restrictions expected to last for a month. let's take a look at what we know so far. non—essential retail and hospitality will be forced to close. supermarkets will stay open. households will not be allowed to mix inside, unless for child care reasons. schools and universities will be allowed to stay open. our political correspondent chris mason is here. i wonder if i could just start by talking about that last point, the schools and universities are staying open. there has been a tweet from the children's commissioner for

england, who says a suggestion is that schools will stay open during the forthcoming lockdown are very welcome. it does sound as if downing street has heard that message and, in fact, schools will be open. yes, and i think it is quite striking that throughout the summer, and as we headed into the autumn and we were getting a sense that the cases were getting a sense that the cases were getting higher and the picture was looking bleaker. getting higher and the picture was looking blea ker. the getting higher and the picture was looking bleaker. the consistent message from those in government, publicly and privately, as far as schools and education settings where concerned, that even in the most grim scenario where a lockdown was coming, as we now know it is, that keeping schools open was absolutely essential. but we know from our programme that there is a live debate amongst teachers as to why thatis debate amongst teachers as to why that is a good idea. you are talking to kevin courtney earlier he was

making the argument that that should not happen. so a contrast between his views and those expressed by the children's commissioner for england. because that is the big distinction between the lockdown that we had across the uk in the spring and the one we expect the prime minister to announce in the next few minutes for the next month. because whilst nonessential shops will close with supermarkets remaining open, hospitality closing except for ta keaway hospitality closing except for takeaway is, schools, colleges and universities will stay open. and so the children, at least, next month, perhaps not as disjointed and disrupted as it will be for many others. crucially their education not disrupted. while we wait for the prime minister to come out into the briefing room... forviewers prime minister to come out into the briefing room... for viewers who are wondering how we have got to this position, whereby we are about to hear the prime minister announced a national lockdown in england, when just a few days ago he was insisting that a localised